# The Rare Earth Map: Every Public Company in the Critical Minerals Trade

**Publisher:** Serverless Holdings · **Published:** 2026-09-25 · **All figures as of:** 2026-09-25
**HTML:** https://www.serverlessholdings.com/blog/critical-minerals.html
**Structured data (JSON):** https://www.serverlessholdings.com/blog/critical-minerals.json

> Informational only. Not investment advice. Figures are compiled from public company filings
> and market data services and may contain errors, restatements, or presentation differences.
> Currency and accounting standards differ by issuer.

## Source note

Social Capital published a deep dive on critical minerals. It is subscriber-only; only the
opening section is publicly readable, and everything cited from it here comes from that public
portion. All company analysis, financials and opinions are Serverless Holdings' own. Nothing
here is affiliated with or endorsed by Social Capital.
Source: https://research.socialcapital.com/p/critical-minerals

## The argument

1. The U.S. critical minerals list grew from **35 minerals (2018) to 60 (2025)**; USGS modeled
   1,200+ supply-disruption scenarios for the current ranking.
2. **Seven industrial baskets** depend on them: batteries, power grid, magnets, chips/displays,
   defense, agriculture, industrial.
3. China controls roughly **85% of global rare earth processing**.
4. The U.S. has the geology but not the **processing**. The bottleneck is midstream —
   separation, metallization, alloying, magnet-making.

**Investable implication:** if the constraint is separation and magnets rather than mining, the
companies that matter are the ones who can turn concentrate into a qualified magnet — not the
ones who can point at a deposit.

## Why 2025–26 broke the old pattern

- **2025-04 — China MOFCOM:** export licences required for samarium, gadolinium, terbium,
  dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, yttrium. *Never suspended.* These are the heavies.
- **2025-07 — US DoD / MP Materials:** $110/kg NdPr floor price for 10 years, 10-year offtake of
  100% of the 10X magnet plant's output, $400M preferred stock, warrants taking the Pentagon to
  ~15% and largest shareholder.
- **2025-10-09 — China MOFCOM:** 0.1% de minimis rule — any product made anywhere containing
  ≥0.1% Chinese-origin rare earths by value needs a Chinese export licence. **Suspended for one
  year until 2026-11-10.**
- **2026-01-14 — Proclamation 11001:** Section 232 extended to processed critical minerals;
  Commerce and USTR directed to negotiate allied price floors, report due 2026-07-13.
- **US government equity stakes:** MP Materials (~15%), Trilogy Metals (10% / $35.6M), Lithium
  Americas (~5% warrant-based alongside the restructured $2.23B DOE loan), plus Vulcan Elements,
  ReElement Technologies, USA Rare Earth and Korea Zinc.

### Prices

| Material | Price | As of |
|---|---:|---|
| NdPr oxide | $53/kg | 2026-01 |
| NdPr oxide | $126/kg (+138% YTD peak) | 2026-04 |
| NdPr oxide | $96.69/kg | 2026-09 |
| Dysprosium | $239.12/kg | 2026-09-03 |
| Terbium (Tb₄O₇) | $840–970/kg | 2026 |

**NdPr at ~$97 is below the $110/kg floor the DoD guarantees MP Materials.** That gap is the
entire investment case for MP and the entire problem for everyone without a floor.

## Tiers

1. **Producing and separating** — revenue exists, oxide ships today.
2. **Metal, alloy and magnet midstream** — the actual chokepoint.
3. **Developers** — permits, pilots, financing.
4. **Adjacent critical minerals** — tungsten, antimony, graphite, lithium, copper.

## The universe at a glance

Ranked by market capitalisation, converted to US dollars at 2026-09-25 rates
(AUD 0.7033, CAD 0.7071, CNY 0.1490). Rendered as a chart at
https://www.serverlessholdings.com/blog/critical-minerals.html

| Company | Ticker | Listed on | Price | US$bn | Tier | What it really is |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---|---|
| China Northern Rare Earth | SSE: 600111 | SSE | ¥37.06 | 19.96 | 1 | The incumbent. Sets the world price |
| Lynas Rare Earths | ASX: LYC / OTC: LYSDY | ASX | A$14.22 | 10.06 | 1 | Largest integrated producer outside China |
| MP Materials | NYSE: MP | NYSE | $48.70 | 8.67 | 1 | Mountain Pass mine + separation + magnets |
| USA Rare Earth | Nasdaq: USAR | Nasdaq | $15.40 | 5.94 | 2 | Stillwater magnet plant + Round Top |
| Shenghe Resources | SSE: 600392 | SSE | ¥21.35 | 5.58 | 1 | Trader/processor, MP's former offtaker |
| JL MAG Rare-Earth | SZSE: 300748 / HKEX: 6680 | SZSE | ¥25.29 | 4.75 | 2 | World's largest NdFeB magnet maker |
| Almonty Industries | Nasdaq: ALM / TSX: AII | Nasdaq | $13.74 | 3.96 | 4 | Tungsten — Sangdong, South Korea |
| Energy Fuels | NYSE American: UUUU | NYSE American | $11.47 | 3.05 | 1 | Uranium producer buying into rare earths |
| Perpetua Resources | Nasdaq: PPTA | Nasdaq | $23.54 | 2.92 | 4 | Gold + the only U.S. antimony reserve |
| Iluka Resources | ASX: ILU | ASX | A$5.87 | 1.78 | 3 | Eneabba refinery |
| Critical Metals Corp | Nasdaq: CRML | Nasdaq | $7.99 | 1.13 | 3 | Tanbreez, Greenland + Wolfsberg lithium |
| Neo Performance Materials | TSX: NEO | TSX | C$32.43 | 1.06 | 1 | Midstream processor + EU magnet plant |
| Arafura Rare Earths | ASX: ARU | ASX | A$0.19 | 0.81 | 3 | Nolans NdPr, at financial close |
| Aclara Resources | TSX: ARA | TSX | C$3.70 | 0.65 | 3 | Ionic clay heavies, Chile + Brazil |
| REalloys | Nasdaq: ALOY | Nasdaq | $8.64 | 0.60 | 2 | Ohio metallization + Tanbreez offtake |
| Ramaco Resources | Nasdaq: METC / Nasdaq: METCB | Nasdaq | $8.96 | 0.57 | 3 | Met coal miner with the Brook Mine option |
| NioCorp Developments | Nasdaq: NB | Nasdaq | $3.56 | 0.52 | 3 | Elk Creek Nb/Sc/Ti + REE, EXIM-dependent |
| Idaho Strategic Resources | NYSE American: IDR | NYSE American | $30.14 | 0.48 | 3 | Profitable gold miner funding REE ground |
| Ucore Rare Metals | TSXV: UCU / OTCQX: UURAF | TSXV | $1.81 | 0.26 | 3 | Louisiana heavy-REE separation (RapidSX) |

## Where they are listed

Listing venue decides who may own the shares, which indices the company can enter, what it
discloses and how often, and what currency the earnings arrive in. For a sector this small and
this politically charged, it also decides how much of the story a Western investor can buy.

### By region of primary listing

| Region | Listings | US$bn | Share |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| China | 3 | 30.29 | 41.6% |
| United States | 10 | 27.83 | 38.3% |
| Australia | 3 | 12.65 | 17.4% |
| Canada | 3 | 1.97 | 2.7% |

**Ten American listings are worth less than three Chinese ones.** The U.S. has the most companies
and the least value per company — the median American listing is worth about $2.0bn against
roughly $5.6bn for a Chinese one. That is what a build-out looks like while it is still being
built: many small bets, none yet at incumbent scale.

### By exchange

| Exchange | Company | Symbol | Also on | US$bn |
|---|---|---|---|---:|
| NYSE | MP Materials | MP | — | 8.67 |
| NYSE American | Energy Fuels | UUUU | TSX: EFR | 3.05 |
| NYSE American | Idaho Strategic Resources | IDR | — | 0.48 |
| Nasdaq | USA Rare Earth | USAR | — | 5.94 |
| Nasdaq | Almonty Industries | ALM | TSX: AII | 3.96 |
| Nasdaq | Perpetua Resources | PPTA | TSX: PPTA | 2.92 |
| Nasdaq | Critical Metals Corp | CRML | — | 1.13 |
| Nasdaq | REalloys | ALOY | — | 0.60 |
| Nasdaq | Ramaco Resources | METC | Nasdaq: METCB | 0.57 |
| Nasdaq | NioCorp Developments | NB | TSX: NB | 0.52 |
| ASX | Lynas Rare Earths | LYC | OTC: LYSDY | 10.06 |
| ASX | Iluka Resources | ILU | — | 1.78 |
| ASX | Arafura Rare Earths | ARU | — | 0.81 |
| TSX | Neo Performance Materials | NEO | — | 1.06 |
| TSX | Aclara Resources | ARA | OTC: ARAAF | 0.65 |
| TSXV | Ucore Rare Metals | UCU | OTCQX: UURAF | 0.26 |
| SSE | China Northern Rare Earth | 600111 | — | 19.96 |
| SSE | Shenghe Resources | 600392 | — | 5.58 |
| SZSE | JL MAG Rare-Earth | 300748 | HKEX: 6680 | 4.75 |

What the venue split tells you:

- **Nasdaq is where the new American money went.** Seven of the ten U.S. listings sit there, most
  arriving recently — USA Rare Earth, REalloys and Critical Metals via SPAC or reverse-merger
  routes. The NYSE proper has exactly one name in this report: MP Materials.
- **The ASX cohort earns its keep.** Three listings, $12.65bn, and the only region where the
  largest company is actually shipping separated oxide at scale and reporting a profit.
- **Canada trades at a discount that is hard to defend.** Three listings worth $1.97bn combined —
  under 3% of the group — despite Neo Performance operating the most productive non-Chinese
  midstream in this report.
- **The Chinese names are mostly unbuyable.** All three list domestically in Shanghai or Shenzhen,
  reachable only via Stock Connect, QFII or an ETF wrapper. Only JL MAG carries a Hong Kong line.
  The incumbent — 42% of the sector's value — is not directly investable for most Westerners.
- **Dual listings hide duplicates.** Nine of the nineteen carry a second line. Screening by
  exchange without deduplicating double-counts nearly half this universe.

## Tier 1 — Producing and separating

### MP Materials (NYSE: MP) — $49.13, ~$8.8B

| Period | Revenue | Net income | Adj. EBITDA |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| FY2024 | $203.9M | $(65.4)M | $(50.2)M |
| FY2025 | $224.4M | $(85.9)M | $11.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $57.4M | — | $(12.5)M |
| Q2 2026 | $108.5M | — | $28.5M |
| TTM (Jun '26) | $416.3M | $(60.6)M | — |

FY2025 revenue grew 10% *despite ceasing all concentrate sales to China from July 2025*. Record
NdPr oxide output of 2,599t (+101%); REO in concentrate 50,692t (+12%). Q2 2026 NdPr sales
volumes +127%, above 1,000t for a second consecutive quarter; adjusted EPS $(0.01) vs $(0.13).

**Outlook:** highest-quality asset, hardest valuation. Only name with a guaranteed floor price,
guaranteed offtake and a government shareholder — which is why ~$8.8B is paid for ~$416M of
trailing revenue and no GAAP profit. Own for the structural position, not the multiple.
Watch: 10X groundbreaking, GM magnet ramp, NdPr output compounding.

### Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC / OTC: LYSDY) — A$14.22

| Period (AUD, June FY) | Revenue | NPAT | EPS |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| FY2024 | A$463.3M | A$84.5M | A$0.09 |
| FY2025 | A$556.5M | A$8.0M | A$0.01 |
| FY2026 | A$977.9M | A$222.4M | A$0.22 |
| Q4 FY26 | A$288.9M | — | — |

FY2025 is instructive: revenue +20% while profit fell 90%, because depreciation from the Mt Weld
expansion and Kalgoorlie commissioning landed before throughput did. FY2026 revenue +76%. Q4 FY26
revenue +70% YoY at a record realised A$98.2/kg. Record 13,089t REO; NdPr 7,260t against 10,500t
nameplate. Closing cash A$1,209.1M.

**Outlook:** cleanest operating leverage in the sector — NdPr at ~69% of nameplate, so closing the
gap is pure margin with no incremental capital. Malaysian licence renewed 10 years (2026-03).
Risks: HRE expansion cost A$180M → A$294M, recurring Kalgoorlie ore-quality and water-recycling
issues, Seadrift (Texas) doubtful, new interim CEO from 2026-07-01. Preferred exposure to the
physical commodity rather than the policy trade.

### Neo Performance Materials (TSX: NEO) — C$32.47, ~C$1.2B

| Period (USD) | Revenue | Net income | Adj. EBITDA |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| FY2023 | $571.6M | $(8.4)M | — |
| FY2024 | $475.8M | $(13.0)M | — |
| FY2025 | $478.8M | $(10.0)M | $75.6M |
| Q1 2026 | — | — | $36.2M |
| TTM (Jun '26) | $603.2M | $1.6M | — |

2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is $75–80M — against a single quarter at $36.2M, which looks
conservative to the point of being a signal.

**Outlook:** the value name. ~1.5× TTM revenue versus MP above 20×, and it already operates the
midstream capacity others are building. Multi-year Bosch MOU reserves Narva (Estonia) capacity.
Offset: meaningful assets and earnings sit inside China, cutting against the de-risking thesis.

### Energy Fuels (NYSE American: UUUU) — $11.47, ~$3.1B

| Period | Revenue | Net income | EPS |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| FY2023 | $37.9M | $99.9M | $0.62 |
| FY2024 | $78.1M | $(47.8)M | $(0.28) |
| FY2025 | $65.9M | $(85.6)M | $(0.38) |
| Q2 2026 | $25.0M | $(33.6)M | $(0.13) |
| TTM (Jun '26) | $105.8M | $(81.8)M | $(0.34) |

2025 production 1,015,000 lbs U₃O₈; H1 2026 alone 1.7M lbs against 1.5–2.5M lb full-year guidance.
Q2 2026 sold 310,000 lbs at $80.48/lb.

**Outlook:** most aggressive strategy, most balance-sheet risk. The ~$1.9B VAC acquisition against
a ~$3.1B market cap would buy an established European magnet business and instant midstream
credibility — and is transformative in the literal sense, alongside the pending ASM deal.
Underwrite financing and integration risk explicitly.

## Tier 2 — Metal, alloy and magnets

### USA Rare Earth (Nasdaq: USAR) — $15.40, ~$5.9B

| Period | Revenue | Net income | EPS |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| FY2023 | — | $(13.1)M | $(0.29) |
| FY2024 | — | $(23.9)M | $(0.40) |
| FY2025 | $1.6M | $(324.5)M | $(3.31) |
| H1 2026 | — | $(142.5)M | — |
| Q2 2026 | $5.8M | $(10.3)M | $(0.05) |
| TTM (Jun '26) | $13.2M | $(311.2)M | $(1.96) |

$244.5M of the FY2025 loss was a non-cash fair-value charge. Cash went from $359.9M (Dec 2025) to
**$1.53B** (Jun 2026). Q2 revenue came entirely from Less Common Metals (UK alloy business).
Stillwater targets 600 MTPA magnet capacity by Q4 2026, 1,200 MTPA in Q1 2027.

**Outlook:** extraordinary optionality at an extraordinary price — ~$5.9B against ~$13M trailing
revenue. $1.53B of cash removes financing risk for years; Less Common Metals gives real alloy
capability. You are paying roughly $4.4B of enterprise value for 1,200 tpa of magnet capacity
still being commissioned. Watch Q4 2026 commissioning and first qualified deliveries.

### REalloys (Nasdaq: ALOY) — $8.64, ~$596M

Revenue $1.87M; net loss $(215.2)M. ~$100M private placement June 2026. U.S. Army contract for a
critical-mineral processing facility; 15-year binding offtake for Tanbreez concentrate.
Phase 1 commissioning H1 2027.

**Outlook:** speculative and honest about it. Army contract and Tanbreez offtake are real; the
JS Link and Patriot LOIs are non-binding. Smallest and earliest listed magnet name.

### The private companies that matter

- **Vulcan Elements** — $1.4B partnership with the US government and ReElement: $620M DoD Office
  of Strategic Capital direct loans, $50M CHIPS incentives, $550M private capital. Building a
  **10,000-tonne** magnet facility — the same scale as MP's 10X.
- **ReElement Technologies** — $80M OSC direct loan; recycling and refining oxides from
  end-of-life magnets and e-waste. Also holds a federal equity stake.
- **Noveon Magnetics** — $215M Series C led by OneIM ($200M). Already producing sintered magnets
  in Texas.
- **Phoenix Tailings** — $40.2M B-3 round (Series B total $116.6M), a $66M DOE grant inside a
  $147.8M project, and a $500M conditional OSC debt commitment for its Freedom Facility.

**Implication:** MP's 10X (10,000t) + Vulcan (10,000t) + USAR + Noveon + Neo's Narva line means
announced Western magnet capacity for 2027–29 is large relative to any realistic non-Chinese
demand in that window. Not every plant earns a return. Policy is funding all of them at once.

## Tier 3 — Developers

### NioCorp Developments (Nasdaq: NB) — $3.61 (52wk $3.41–$12.58)

Pre-revenue. EPS: FY2024 $(0.31), FY2025 $(0.36), TTM $(0.54). Net cash $418.8M (Mar 2026).
EXIM application for up to $800M advanced to independent technical review (RPMGlobal); J.P. Morgan
engaged.

**Outlook:** funded, and down ~71% from its high anyway. Strong developer balance sheet, but Elk
Creek has been in EXIM process since 2023 and niobium/scandium are not what the market is paying
for. Rare earth angle is secondary. Catalyst is a signed EXIM facility, not a drill result.

### Critical Metals Corp (Nasdaq: CRML) — $7.99, ~$1.1B

| Period | Revenue | Net income | EPS |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| FY2024 (Jun) | $0.12M | $(139.5)M | $(5.27) |
| FY2025 (Jun) | $0.56M | $(51.9)M | $(0.56) |
| TTM (Dec '25) | $0.77M | $(153.3)M | $(1.47) |

Net cash $78.6M. Tanbreez ownership to 92.5% (April 2026, Greenland government approval); pilot
plant slated August 2026; 15-year binding offtake with REalloys.

**Outlook:** best geology, worst balance-sheet fit. Heavy rare earths in a NATO-aligned Arctic
jurisdiction is exactly the asset Western policy wants — but $78.6M does not build an Arctic mine
and refinery. Expect substantial dilution or a strategic/sovereign partner. That partner arriving
is the thesis.

### Ucore Rare Metals (TSXV: UCU / OTCQX: UURAF)

Separation technology, not mining. RapidSX deployed at the Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex
(Alexandria), staged from **2,000 tpa in 2026 to 5,000 tpa in 2027** per a May 2026 engineering
report led by Orbital Engineering. DoD-funded.

**Outlook:** right problem, unproven scale-up. Attacks exactly the heavy-REE separation bottleneck
the April 2025 Chinese controls made acute. The question is whether RapidSX performs at commercial
scale — solvent extraction is unforgiving from pilot to plant. Micro-cap risk profile.

### Ramaco Resources (Nasdaq: METC / METCB) — $8.92

| Period | Revenue | Net income | EPS |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| FY2023 | $693.5M | $79.5M | $1.64 |
| FY2024 | $666.3M | $9.2M | $0.17 |
| FY2025 | $536.6M | $(52.4)M | $(0.89) |
| TTM (Jun '26) | $515.4M | $(61.9)M | $(0.96) |

2026 guidance 3.7–4.1M tons at $95–100/ton cash cost. Dividend cut from $0.550 to $0.206/share in
FY2025. Brook Mine (Wyoming) is the first new U.S. rare earth mine in ~70 years; Hatch-led PFS
delivered Q1 2026; offtake MOU with Mulberry Industries.

**Outlook:** a cyclical trough funding a free option. The only name here where the rare earth asset
is attached to a business with real revenue — and that business is losing money in a met coal
downturn. Watch the METC/METCB spread as a sentiment gauge.

### Idaho Strategic Resources (NYSE American: IDR) — $30.14, ~$477M

FY2025: revenue $42.4M (+64.6%), net income $16.7M (+89.2%), EPS $1.14.

**Outlook:** the only profitable pure-play adjacent name. A ~29% net margin gold producer holding
rare earth and thorium ground including Lemhi Pass, funding exploration from operating cash flow
rather than equity issuance. The rare earth exposure is an unpriced call option on a working
business. Risk: you are mostly buying a gold miner — size it as one.

### Australian and Canadian developers

- **Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU)** — Eneabba will be Australia's first fully integrated rare earth
  refinery. Capex from ~A$1.2B to **A$1.7–1.8B**; commissioning slipped to 2027; first A$1.25B
  government tranche expected fully drawn by end-2026 at 75% completion. First binding offtake:
  ~1,200 tpa magnet rare earth oxides, take-or-pay to an undisclosed global automaker from 2028 —
  the most important commercial validation in the Australian sector. *The capex overrun is the risk.*
- **Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU)** — Nolans NdPr. More than **A$930M** equity commitments banked
  including a $375M raise in May 2026, Hancock Prospecting to ~17.5%. Contractual close targeted
  October 2026 pending final lender credit approvals. *Binary and near-term.*
- **Aclara Resources (TSX: ARA)** — ionic clay heavy rare earths at Penco (Chile) and Carina
  (Brazil) — a genuinely different, lower-cost deposit type. Development phase completes end-2026;
  production targeted 2028. *Gated on Chilean permitting and a construction cheque not yet written.*

## Tier 4 — Adjacent critical minerals

### Almonty Industries (Nasdaq: ALM / TSX: AII) — $13.74, ~$4.0B

FY2025 revenue $32.5M; net loss $(161.9)M. Sangdong (South Korea) tungsten ramping.

**Outlook:** the most stretched valuation on this page. Tungsten is strategically vital and China
dominates it, but ~$4.0B on $32.5M of revenue requires near-flawless execution. Market cap up
~240% over twelve months. Real asset, crowded trade.

### Perpetua Resources (Nasdaq: PPTA) — $23.54, ~$2.9B

Pre-production. Net loss $(232.3)M, EPS $(1.95). **$2.9B EXIM loan finalised May 2026.** First
production 2029; ~450,000 oz gold/year over the first four years; the only meaningful U.S.
antimony reserve.

**Outlook:** fully funded, and that is rare. The EXIM facility is the largest critical-minerals
financing in this report and removes the usual developer dilution risk. Antimony matters for
munitions, but gold carries the economics. Litigation continues despite the May 2026 injunction
denial. Long duration, unusually well financed.

### Also in the frame

- **Westwater Resources (NYSE American: WWR)** — graphite anode material, Kellyton, Alabama.
- **Syrah Resources (ASX: SYR)** — Balama graphite (Mozambique) + U.S. anode capacity.
- **Nouveau Monde Graphite (TSX: NOU / NYSE: NMG)** — Quebec graphite, mine-to-anode.
- **Lithium Americas (NYSE: LAC)** — Thacker Pass; DOE holds ~5% warrant-based stake.
- **Trilogy Metals (NYSE American: TMQ)** — Alaskan copper-cobalt; U.S. government took 10%.

## The incumbent: China's listed complex

| Company | Ticker | Period | Revenue | Net profit | YoY |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| China Northern Rare Earth | SHA: 600111 | FY2025 | ¥42.56B | ¥2.25B | +124.2% |
| Shenghe Resources | SHA: 600392 | 9M 2025 | ¥10.46B | ¥0.74–0.82B | +697–783% |
| JL MAG Rare-Earth | SZ: 300748 / HK: 6680 | FY2024 | ¥6.76B | ¥0.29B | −48.4% |

China Northern alone is worth more than Lynas and MP Materials combined, and did ~$6B of revenue
in 2025 with profit up 124%. MP Materials did $224M of revenue.
That is roughly 25-to-1 at the top of the market. Western investors are not buying into a fair
fight — they are buying a state-funded attempt to build a second, higher-cost supply chain in
parallel. Whether it ever earns a normal return is the open question in every valuation above.

## What we are watching

1. **2026-11-10** — China's suspension of the 0.1% de minimis rule expires. Largest near-term
   swing factor for every name.
2. **Section 232 outcome** — Commerce/USTR report on allied price floors was due 2026-07-13. A
   generalised Western floor re-rates Tier 1 and Tier 3; without one, MP's floor stays unique.
3. **NdPr versus $110** — market ~$97, U.S. government's declared viable level $110. All Western
   project economics sit in that gap.
4. **Magnet capacity versus demand** — MP 10X, Vulcan, USAR, Neo Narva, Noveon all land 2027–29.
   Somebody runs at low utilisation.
5. **Heavies, not lights** — Dy and Tb never came off China's control list. Aclara, Ucore,
   Critical Metals and Lynas's DyTb line are where genuine scarcity sits.

## How we frame it

1. **Pay for tonnes, not for announcements.** The gap between MP at ~20× trailing revenue and Neo
   at ~1.5× is not explained by asset quality alone — it is narrative proximity to Washington.
2. **Prefer the balance sheet that does not need the market.** Lynas (A$1.2B cash), USAR ($1.53B),
   NioCorp ($419M net cash) and Perpetua ($2.9B committed) can execute without asking permission.
   CRML, Ucore and Arafura cannot.
3. **Assume the policy is temporary and the plant is permanent.** Price floors, equity stakes and
   Section 232 authority are reversible by an election. A commissioned separation plant with
   qualified customers is not. Underwrite the second thing.

**Where that leaves us:** the two names that survive all three filters today are **Lynas** — real
tonnes, real cash, obvious unused capacity — and **Neo Performance Materials** — real midstream,
real customers, a valuation that has not been bid up, with China exposure as the acknowledged
offset. **MP Materials** owns the best strategic position in the West and we would expect to own
it eventually, at a price that reflects execution rather than expectation. Everything else in
Tiers 2 and 3 is venture exposure in a public wrapper, and should be sized that way.

## Sources

Company filings and releases: MP Materials Q4/FY2025 and Q2 2026 8-Ks; Lynas FY2025 and FY2026
results and the June 2026 quarterly report; Energy Fuels 2025 results and Q2 2026 release; USA
Rare Earth FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 release; Neo Performance Materials Q4 2025 and Q1 2026
releases; Ramaco Resources FY2025 and 2026 quarterly releases; NioCorp 10-Q (Mar 2026); Critical
Metals Corp project updates; Ucore engineering report (May 2026); Idaho Strategic Resources 2025
results; Almonty, Perpetua and REalloys company disclosures. Policy: White House Proclamation
11001 (2026-01-14); DoD–MP Materials partnership (July 2025); China MOFCOM announcements of April
and October 2025 and the subsequent one-year suspension. Market data via public quote services as
of 2026-09-25.