{
  "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
  "report": {
    "id": "critical-minerals-2026-09-25",
    "title": "The Rare Earth Map: Every Public Company in the Critical Minerals Trade",
    "publisher": "Serverless Holdings",
    "published": "2026-09-25",
    "data_as_of": "2026-09-25",
    "canonical": "https://www.serverlessholdings.com/blog/critical-minerals.html",
    "markdown": "https://www.serverlessholdings.com/blog/critical-minerals.md",
    "license": "Informational use. Not investment advice.",
    "source_thesis": {
      "url": "https://research.socialcapital.com/p/critical-minerals",
      "publisher": "Social Capital",
      "access": "paywalled",
      "note": "Only the public preamble was used. All company analysis is Serverless Holdings' own."
    },
    "disclaimer": "Informational only. Not investment advice. Figures compiled from public filings and market data services as of 2026-09-25. Currency and accounting standards differ by issuer."
  },
  "market_context": {
    "china_share_of_rare_earth_processing_pct": 85,
    "us_critical_minerals_list_count": {
      "2018": 35,
      "2022": 50,
      "2025": 60
    },
    "prices": [
      {
        "material": "NdPr oxide",
        "price": 96.69,
        "unit": "USD/kg",
        "as_of": "2026-09"
      },
      {
        "material": "NdPr oxide",
        "price": 53,
        "unit": "USD/kg",
        "as_of": "2026-01"
      },
      {
        "material": "NdPr oxide",
        "price": 126,
        "unit": "USD/kg",
        "as_of": "2026-04",
        "note": "+138% YTD peak"
      },
      {
        "material": "Dysprosium",
        "price": 239.12,
        "unit": "USD/kg",
        "as_of": "2026-09-03"
      },
      {
        "material": "Terbium (Tb4O7)",
        "price_low": 840,
        "price_high": 970.18,
        "unit": "USD/kg",
        "as_of": "2026"
      }
    ],
    "policy": [
      {
        "date": "2025-04",
        "actor": "China MOFCOM",
        "action": "Export licences required for Sm, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Sc, Y",
        "status": "in force, never suspended"
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07",
        "actor": "US DoD",
        "action": "MP Materials partnership: $110/kg NdPr floor for 10 years, 10-year offtake of 10X magnet output, $400M preferred, ~15% stake",
        "status": "in force"
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-09",
        "actor": "China MOFCOM",
        "action": "0.1% de minimis extraterritorial licensing rule",
        "status": "suspended until 2026-11-10"
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-14",
        "actor": "US White House",
        "action": "Proclamation 11001 — Section 232 on processed critical minerals; Commerce/USTR to negotiate allied price floors, report due 2026-07-13",
        "status": "in force"
      }
    ],
    "us_government_equity_stakes": [
      {
        "company": "MP Materials",
        "ticker": "MP",
        "detail": "~15% for $400M preferred + warrants"
      },
      {
        "company": "Trilogy Metals",
        "ticker": "TMQ",
        "detail": "10% for $35.6M"
      },
      {
        "company": "Lithium Americas",
        "ticker": "LAC",
        "detail": "~5% warrant-based alongside restructured $2.23B DOE loan"
      },
      {
        "company": "Vulcan Elements",
        "ticker": null,
        "detail": "part of $1.4B partnership; $620M OSC loan + $50M CHIPS"
      },
      {
        "company": "ReElement Technologies",
        "ticker": null,
        "detail": "$80M OSC direct loan + equity"
      },
      {
        "company": "USA Rare Earth",
        "ticker": "USAR",
        "detail": "equity-structured federal position"
      }
    ],
    "fx_rates_used": {
      "as_of": "2026-09-25",
      "base": "USD",
      "AUD_to_USD": 0.7033,
      "CAD_to_USD": 0.7071,
      "CNY_to_USD": 0.149
    }
  },
  "tiers": {
    "1": "Producing and separating — revenue exists, oxide ships today",
    "2": "Metal, alloy and magnet midstream — the actual chokepoint",
    "3": "Developers — permits, pilots and financing",
    "4": "Adjacent critical minerals — tungsten, antimony, graphite, lithium, copper"
  },
  "companies": [
    {
      "name": "MP Materials",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "NYSE",
          "symbol": "MP"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 1,
      "assets": [
        "Mountain Pass, California",
        "Fort Worth magnet plant",
        "10X Northlake, Texas (2028)"
      ],
      "price_usd": 49.13,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2024",
          "revenue": 203900000,
          "net_income": -65400000,
          "adjusted_ebitda": -50200000
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2025",
          "revenue": 224400000,
          "net_income": -85900000,
          "adjusted_ebitda": 11400000
        },
        {
          "period": "Q2-2025",
          "revenue": 57400000,
          "adjusted_ebitda": -12500000
        },
        {
          "period": "Q2-2026",
          "revenue": 108500000,
          "adjusted_ebitda": 28500000,
          "adjusted_eps": -0.01
        },
        {
          "period": "TTM-2026-06",
          "revenue": 416250000,
          "net_income": -60620000
        }
      ],
      "operations": {
        "ndpr_oxide_t_2025": 2599,
        "ndpr_oxide_yoy_pct": 101,
        "reo_concentrate_t_2025": 50692,
        "reo_yoy_pct": 12
      },
      "outlook": "Highest-quality strategic position in the West and the hardest valuation. Guaranteed $110/kg floor, guaranteed offtake, government shareholder. Priced for on-time 10X commissioning in 2028 and magnet margins no Western producer has demonstrated.",
      "stance": "Own for structural position, not multiple.",
      "catalysts": [
        "10X groundbreaking",
        "GM magnet ramp",
        "NdPr output compounding"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 8670000000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 8670000000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "NYSE",
        "region": "United States",
        "secondary_listings": []
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Lynas Rare Earths",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "ASX",
          "symbol": "LYC"
        },
        {
          "exchange": "OTC",
          "symbol": "LYSDY"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 1,
      "assets": [
        "Mt Weld, WA",
        "Kalgoorlie processing",
        "Kuantan, Malaysia"
      ],
      "price_aud": 14.22,
      "currency": "AUD",
      "fiscal_year_end": "June",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2024",
          "revenue": 463290000,
          "net_income": 84510000,
          "eps": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2025",
          "revenue": 556510000,
          "net_income": 7990000,
          "eps": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2026",
          "revenue": 977950000,
          "net_income": 222350000,
          "eps": 0.22
        },
        {
          "period": "Q4-FY2026",
          "revenue": 288900000,
          "note": "+70% YoY, record realised price A$98.2/kg"
        }
      ],
      "operations": {
        "total_reo_t_fy2026": 13089,
        "ndpr_t_fy2026": 7260,
        "ndpr_nameplate_t": 10500,
        "utilisation_pct": 69,
        "cash_aud": 1209100000
      },
      "outlook": "Cleanest operating leverage in the sector — NdPr running at ~69% of nameplate, so closing the gap is margin with no incremental capital. Malaysian licence renewed 10 years in March 2026. Risks: HRE expansion cost A$180M to A$294M, recurring Kalgoorlie ore-quality issues, Seadrift Texas doubtful, new interim CEO from 2026-07-01.",
      "stance": "Preferred exposure to the physical commodity rather than the policy trade.",
      "catalysts": [
        "NdPr utilisation",
        "DyTb and samarium ramp",
        "JS Link Malaysia magnet JV"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 14310000000,
        "currency": "AUD",
        "usd": 10064223000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "ASX",
        "region": "Australia",
        "secondary_listings": [
          "OTC: LYSDY"
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Neo Performance Materials",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "TSX",
          "symbol": "NEO"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 1,
      "assets": [
        "Narva magnet plant, Estonia",
        "Thailand",
        "China",
        "Canada"
      ],
      "price_cad": 32.47,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2023",
          "revenue": 571550000,
          "net_income": -8440000
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2024",
          "revenue": 475830000,
          "net_income": -12950000
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2025",
          "revenue": 478790000,
          "net_income": -9980000,
          "adjusted_ebitda": 75600000
        },
        {
          "period": "Q1-2026",
          "adjusted_ebitda": 36200000
        },
        {
          "period": "TTM-2026-06",
          "revenue": 603190000,
          "net_income": 1550000
        }
      ],
      "guidance": {
        "2026_adjusted_ebitda_low": 75000000,
        "2026_adjusted_ebitda_high": 80000000,
        "note": "Looks conservative against Q1 at $36.2M"
      },
      "outlook": "The value name. ~1.5x TTM revenue versus MP above 20x, and it already operates the midstream capacity others are building. Bosch MOU reserves Narva capacity. Offset: meaningful assets and earnings sit inside China.",
      "stance": "Preferred value exposure.",
      "catalysts": [
        "2026 guidance revision",
        "European magnet ramp"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 1500000000,
        "currency": "CAD",
        "usd": 1060650000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "TSX",
        "region": "Canada",
        "secondary_listings": []
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Energy Fuels",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "NYSE American",
          "symbol": "UUUU"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 1,
      "assets": [
        "White Mesa Mill, Utah",
        "heavy rare earth plant under construction"
      ],
      "price_usd": 11.47,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2023",
          "revenue": 37930000,
          "net_income": 99860000,
          "eps": 0.62
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2024",
          "revenue": 78110000,
          "net_income": -47770000,
          "eps": -0.28
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2025",
          "revenue": 65920000,
          "net_income": -85630000,
          "eps": -0.38
        },
        {
          "period": "Q2-2026",
          "revenue": 25000000,
          "net_income": -33600000,
          "eps": -0.13
        },
        {
          "period": "TTM-2026-06",
          "revenue": 105760000,
          "net_income": -81750000
        }
      ],
      "operations": {
        "u3o8_lbs_2025": 1015000,
        "u3o8_lbs_h1_2026": 1700000,
        "guidance_lbs_2026_low": 1500000,
        "guidance_lbs_2026_high": 2500000,
        "realised_price_usd_per_lb": 80.48
      },
      "outlook": "Most aggressive strategy, most balance-sheet risk. The ~$1.9B VAC acquisition against a ~$3.1B market cap would buy instant midstream credibility and is transformative in the literal sense, alongside the pending ASM deal. Uranium is a real cash engine; underwrite financing and integration risk explicitly.",
      "stance": "Underwrite the deal, not the narrative.",
      "catalysts": [
        "VAC close",
        "ASM close",
        "White Mesa heavy REE commissioning"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 3050000000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 3050000000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "NYSE American",
        "region": "United States",
        "secondary_listings": [
          "TSX: EFR"
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "USA Rare Earth",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "Nasdaq",
          "symbol": "USAR"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 2,
      "assets": [
        "Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet plant",
        "Round Top, Texas",
        "Less Common Metals (UK)"
      ],
      "price_usd": 15.4,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2023",
          "net_income": -13060000,
          "eps": -0.29
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2024",
          "net_income": -23910000,
          "eps": -0.4
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2025",
          "revenue": 1640000,
          "net_income": -324510000,
          "eps": -3.31,
          "note": "includes $244.5M non-cash fair value loss; cash $359.9M"
        },
        {
          "period": "H1-2026",
          "net_income": -142500000
        },
        {
          "period": "Q2-2026",
          "revenue": 5800000,
          "net_income": -10300000,
          "eps": -0.05,
          "adjusted_net_loss": -33500000,
          "cash": 1530000000
        },
        {
          "period": "TTM-2026-06",
          "revenue": 13160000,
          "net_income": -311160000
        }
      ],
      "operations": {
        "magnet_capacity_mtpa_q4_2026": 600,
        "magnet_capacity_mtpa_q1_2027": 1200
      },
      "outlook": "Extraordinary optionality at an extraordinary price — ~$5.9B against ~$13M trailing revenue. $1.53B of cash removes financing risk for years and Less Common Metals gives real alloy capability. You are paying roughly $4.4B enterprise value for 1,200 tpa of magnet capacity still being commissioned.",
      "stance": "Venture exposure in a public wrapper. Size accordingly.",
      "catalysts": [
        "Q4 2026 Stillwater commissioning",
        "first qualified customer deliveries"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 5940000000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 5940000000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "Nasdaq",
        "region": "United States",
        "secondary_listings": []
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "REalloys",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "Nasdaq",
          "symbol": "ALOY"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 2,
      "assets": [
        "Euclid, Ohio",
        "US Army processing contract",
        "Tanbreez 15-year offtake"
      ],
      "price_usd": 8.64,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "latest annual",
          "revenue": 1870000,
          "net_income": -215150000
        }
      ],
      "operations": {
        "phase_1_commissioning": "H1 2027",
        "private_placement_usd": 100000000
      },
      "outlook": "Speculative and honest about it. Army contract and Tanbreez offtake are real; JS Link and Patriot LOIs are non-binding. Smallest and earliest listed magnet name.",
      "stance": "Speculative.",
      "catalysts": [
        "Phase 1 commissioning H1 2027"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 596050000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 596050000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "Nasdaq",
        "region": "United States",
        "secondary_listings": []
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "NioCorp Developments",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "Nasdaq",
          "symbol": "NB"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 3,
      "assets": [
        "Elk Creek, Nebraska (Nb, Sc, Ti, REE)"
      ],
      "price_usd": 3.61,
      "week_52_low": 3.405,
      "week_52_high": 12.58,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2023",
          "eps": -1.34
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2024",
          "eps": -0.31
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2025",
          "eps": -0.36
        },
        {
          "period": "TTM",
          "eps": -0.54
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-03",
          "net_cash": 418820000
        }
      ],
      "outlook": "Funded, and down ~71% from its high anyway. $418.8M net cash against essentially no debt is a strong developer position, but Elk Creek has been in EXIM process since 2023 and niobium/scandium are not what the market is paying for. Rare earth angle is secondary.",
      "stance": "Catalyst-driven; needs a signed EXIM facility.",
      "catalysts": [
        "EXIM facility up to $800M",
        "RPMGlobal technical review outcome"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 517560000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 517560000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "Nasdaq",
        "region": "United States",
        "secondary_listings": [
          "TSX: NB"
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Critical Metals Corp",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "Nasdaq",
          "symbol": "CRML"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 3,
      "assets": [
        "Tanbreez, Greenland (92.5%)",
        "Wolfsberg lithium, Austria"
      ],
      "price_usd": 7.99,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2023-06",
          "revenue": 110000,
          "net_income": -5450000
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2024-06",
          "revenue": 120000,
          "net_income": -139450000,
          "eps": -5.27
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2025-06",
          "revenue": 560000,
          "net_income": -51870000,
          "eps": -0.56
        },
        {
          "period": "TTM-2025-12",
          "revenue": 770000,
          "net_income": -153310000,
          "eps": -1.47,
          "net_cash": 78550000
        }
      ],
      "outlook": "Best geology, worst balance-sheet fit. Heavy rare earths in a NATO-aligned Arctic jurisdiction is exactly the asset Western policy wants, but $78.6M of net cash does not build an Arctic mine and refinery. Expect substantial dilution or a strategic/sovereign partner.",
      "stance": "Thesis is the partner arriving.",
      "catalysts": [
        "Pilot plant August 2026",
        "strategic or sovereign investor"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 1130000000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 1130000000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "Nasdaq",
        "region": "United States",
        "secondary_listings": []
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Ucore Rare Metals",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "TSXV",
          "symbol": "UCU"
        },
        {
          "exchange": "OTCQX",
          "symbol": "UURAF"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 3,
      "assets": [
        "Louisiana Strategic Metals Complex, Alexandria",
        "RapidSX separation technology"
      ],
      "currency": "CAD",
      "operations": {
        "capacity_tpa_2026": 2000,
        "capacity_tpa_2027": 5000
      },
      "outlook": "Right problem, unproven scale-up. Attacks the heavy-REE separation bottleneck the April 2025 Chinese controls made acute, with federal backing. Entire question is whether RapidSX performs at commercial scale — solvent extraction is unforgiving from pilot to plant.",
      "stance": "Micro-cap risk profile.",
      "catalysts": [
        "First Louisiana production in 2026"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 255580000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 255580000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "TSXV",
        "region": "Canada",
        "secondary_listings": [
          "OTCQX: UURAF"
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Ramaco Resources",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "Nasdaq",
          "symbol": "METC"
        },
        {
          "exchange": "Nasdaq",
          "symbol": "METCB"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 3,
      "assets": [
        "Appalachian metallurgical coal",
        "Brook Mine, Wyoming"
      ],
      "price_usd": 8.92,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2023",
          "revenue": 693520000,
          "net_income": 79540000,
          "eps": 1.64
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2024",
          "revenue": 666300000,
          "net_income": 9180000,
          "eps": 0.17
        },
        {
          "period": "FY2025",
          "revenue": 536620000,
          "net_income": -52380000,
          "eps": -0.89
        },
        {
          "period": "TTM-2026-06",
          "revenue": 515420000,
          "net_income": -61940000,
          "eps": -0.96
        }
      ],
      "guidance": {
        "2026_production_mt_low": 3.7,
        "2026_production_mt_high": 4.1,
        "cash_cost_usd_per_ton_low": 95,
        "cash_cost_usd_per_ton_high": 100
      },
      "outlook": "A cyclical trough funding a free option. Only name here where the rare earth asset is attached to a real revenue business — and that business is losing money in a met coal downturn. Brook Mine is the first new US REE mine in ~70 years.",
      "stance": "Underwriting coal prices to hold the option.",
      "catalysts": [
        "Hatch PFS outcome",
        "Mulberry offtake conversion",
        "METC/METCB spread"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 570600000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 570600000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "Nasdaq",
        "region": "United States",
        "secondary_listings": [
          "Nasdaq: METCB"
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Idaho Strategic Resources",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "NYSE American",
          "symbol": "IDR"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 3,
      "assets": [
        "Golden Chest gold mine",
        "Lemhi Pass REE/thorium",
        "Diamond Creek"
      ],
      "price_usd": 30.14,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2025",
          "revenue": 42410000,
          "net_income": 16720000,
          "eps": 1.14,
          "revenue_yoy_pct": 64.6,
          "net_income_yoy_pct": 89.2
        }
      ],
      "outlook": "The only profitable pure-play adjacent name. A ~29% net margin gold producer that also holds rare earth ground and funds exploration from operating cash flow rather than equity issuance. Rare earth exposure is an unpriced call option on a working business.",
      "stance": "Mostly a gold miner — size it as one.",
      "catalysts": [
        "Lemhi Pass results",
        "gold price"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 477000000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 477000000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "NYSE American",
        "region": "United States",
        "secondary_listings": []
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Iluka Resources",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "ASX",
          "symbol": "ILU"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 3,
      "assets": [
        "Eneabba refinery, WA"
      ],
      "currency": "AUD",
      "operations": {
        "capex_original_aud": 1200000000,
        "capex_revised_aud_low": 1700000000,
        "capex_revised_aud_high": 1800000000,
        "commissioning": "2027",
        "first_tranche_aud": 1250000000,
        "offtake_tpa_mreo": 1200,
        "offtake_start": "2028"
      },
      "outlook": "State-financed, schedule-slipping, but with a real customer. First binding offtake of ~1,200 tpa magnet rare earth oxides take-or-pay to an undisclosed global automaker from 2028 is the most important commercial validation in the Australian sector. The capex overrun is the risk.",
      "stance": "Watch the capex.",
      "catalysts": [
        "Tranche drawdown to 75% completion by end-2026"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 2530000000,
        "currency": "AUD",
        "usd": 1779349000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "ASX",
        "region": "Australia",
        "secondary_listings": []
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Arafura Rare Earths",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "ASX",
          "symbol": "ARU"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 3,
      "assets": [
        "Nolans NdPr, Northern Territory"
      ],
      "currency": "AUD",
      "operations": {
        "equity_commitments_aud": 930000000,
        "equity_raise_2026_05": 375000000,
        "hancock_stake_pct": 17.5,
        "contractual_close_target": "2026-10"
      },
      "outlook": "Binary and near-term. If October closes, Arafura becomes a funded developer; if it slips again, existing board pressure gets worse.",
      "stance": "Event-driven.",
      "catalysts": [
        "October 2026 contractual close",
        "final lender credit approvals"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 1150000000,
        "currency": "AUD",
        "usd": 808795000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "ASX",
        "region": "Australia",
        "secondary_listings": []
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Aclara Resources",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "TSX",
          "symbol": "ARA"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 3,
      "assets": [
        "Penco Module, Chile",
        "Carina, Brazil"
      ],
      "currency": "CAD",
      "operations": {
        "development_phase_complete": "end-2026",
        "construction_start": "end-2026 subject to financing",
        "commercial_production": "2028"
      },
      "outlook": "The most credible heavy-REE ionic clay geology outside China and Greenland — a genuinely different and lower-cost deposit type — gated entirely on Chilean permitting and a construction cheque that has not been written.",
      "stance": "Permitting and financing gated.",
      "catalysts": [
        "Penco environmental permit",
        "Carina feasibility study"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 920770000,
        "currency": "CAD",
        "usd": 651076467
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "TSX",
        "region": "Canada",
        "secondary_listings": [
          "OTC: ARAAF"
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Almonty Industries",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "Nasdaq",
          "symbol": "ALM"
        },
        {
          "exchange": "TSX",
          "symbol": "AII"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 4,
      "commodity": "tungsten",
      "assets": [
        "Sangdong, South Korea"
      ],
      "price_usd": 13.74,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2025",
          "revenue": 32510000,
          "net_income": -161910000
        }
      ],
      "outlook": "The most stretched valuation on the page. Tungsten is strategically vital, China dominates it, and Sangdong is world-class and ramping — but ~$4.0B on $32.5M of revenue and a $162M loss requires near-flawless execution. Market cap up ~240% in twelve months.",
      "stance": "Real asset, crowded trade.",
      "catalysts": [
        "Sangdong ramp",
        "tungsten price"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 3960000000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 3960000000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "Nasdaq",
        "region": "United States",
        "secondary_listings": [
          "TSX: AII"
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Perpetua Resources",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "Nasdaq",
          "symbol": "PPTA"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 4,
      "commodity": "antimony, gold, tungsten",
      "assets": [
        "Stibnite Gold Project, Idaho"
      ],
      "price_usd": 23.54,
      "currency": "USD",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "latest annual",
          "revenue": 0,
          "net_income": -232330000,
          "eps": -1.95
        }
      ],
      "operations": {
        "exim_loan_usd": 2900000000,
        "first_production": "2029",
        "gold_oz_per_year_first_4y": 450000
      },
      "outlook": "Fully funded, and that is rare. The $2.9B EXIM facility is the largest critical-minerals financing in this report and removes the usual developer dilution risk. Only meaningful US antimony reserve, carried economically by gold. Litigation continues despite the May 2026 injunction denial.",
      "stance": "Long duration, unusually well financed.",
      "catalysts": [
        "Construction milestones",
        "tungsten exploration funding"
      ],
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 2920000000,
        "currency": "USD",
        "usd": 2920000000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "Nasdaq",
        "region": "United States",
        "secondary_listings": [
          "TSX: PPTA"
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "China Northern Rare Earth",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "SSE",
          "symbol": "600111"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 1,
      "region": "China",
      "currency": "CNY",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2025",
          "revenue": 42563000000,
          "net_income": 2251000000,
          "revenue_yoy_pct": 29.11,
          "net_income_yoy_pct": 124.17
        }
      ],
      "outlook": "The incumbent that sets the world price. ~$6B of revenue in 2025 with profit up 124% — roughly 25x MP Materials' revenue. The benchmark every Western valuation is implicitly measured against.",
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 133970000000,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "usd": 19961530000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "SSE",
        "region": "China",
        "secondary_listings": []
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "Shenghe Resources",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "SSE",
          "symbol": "600392"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 1,
      "region": "China",
      "currency": "CNY",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "9M-2025",
          "revenue": 10460000000,
          "net_income_low": 740000000,
          "net_income_high": 820000000,
          "revenue_yoy_pct": 26.9,
          "net_income_yoy_pct_low": 696.82,
          "net_income_yoy_pct_high": 782.96
        }
      ],
      "outlook": "What happens when you control the midstream during a price spike. Formerly MP Materials' concentrate offtaker.",
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 37420000000,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "usd": 5575580000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "SSE",
        "region": "China",
        "secondary_listings": []
      }
    },
    {
      "name": "JL MAG Rare-Earth",
      "tickers": [
        {
          "exchange": "SZSE",
          "symbol": "300748"
        },
        {
          "exchange": "HKEX",
          "symbol": "6680"
        }
      ],
      "tier": 2,
      "region": "China",
      "currency": "CNY",
      "financials": [
        {
          "period": "FY2024",
          "revenue": 6760000000,
          "net_income": 291040000,
          "net_income_yoy_pct": -48.37
        }
      ],
      "outlook": "World's largest NdFeB magnet maker. Its compressed 2024 margins are the clearest warning that magnet manufacturing is not automatically a high-return business.",
      "market_cap": {
        "local": 31900000000,
        "currency": "CNY",
        "usd": 4753100000
      },
      "listing": {
        "primary_exchange": "SZSE",
        "region": "China",
        "secondary_listings": [
          "HKEX: 6680"
        ]
      }
    }
  ],
  "private_companies_of_note": [
    {
      "name": "Vulcan Elements",
      "detail": "$1.4B partnership with US government and ReElement: $620M OSC direct loans, $50M CHIPS incentives, $550M private capital. 10,000-tonne magnet facility."
    },
    {
      "name": "ReElement Technologies",
      "detail": "$80M OSC direct loan; recycling and refining of oxides from end-of-life magnets and e-waste."
    },
    {
      "name": "Noveon Magnetics",
      "detail": "$215M Series C led by OneIM ($200M). Sintered magnets in Texas."
    },
    {
      "name": "Phoenix Tailings",
      "detail": "$40.2M B-3 round (Series B total $116.6M), $66M DOE grant within a $147.8M project, $500M conditional OSC debt for the Freedom Facility."
    }
  ],
  "etf_reference": {
    "ticker": "REMX",
    "name": "VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF",
    "ytd_return_pct": 10.39,
    "as_of": "2026-07-07",
    "nav": 81.37,
    "aum_usd": 2450000000,
    "expense_ratio_pct": 0.57,
    "top_holdings": [
      {
        "name": "Albemarle",
        "weight_pct": 7.96
      },
      {
        "name": "PLS Group",
        "weight_pct": 7.33
      },
      {
        "name": "MP Materials",
        "weight_pct": 7.09
      },
      {
        "name": "Lynas Rare Earths",
        "weight_pct": 6.89
      },
      {
        "name": "China Northern Rare Earth",
        "weight_pct": 6.84
      }
    ]
  },
  "watch_list": [
    {
      "date": "2026-11-10",
      "event": "China's suspension of the 0.1% de minimis rule expires",
      "why": "Largest near-term swing factor for every listed name"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-07-13",
      "event": "Section 232 allied price-floor report due",
      "why": "Generalised Western floor would re-rate Tier 1 and Tier 3"
    },
    {
      "date": "ongoing",
      "event": "NdPr spot (~$97) versus the $110/kg US floor",
      "why": "All Western project economics sit in that gap"
    },
    {
      "date": "2027-2029",
      "event": "Magnet capacity versus demand",
      "why": "MP 10X, Vulcan, USAR, Neo Narva and Noveon all land together"
    },
    {
      "date": "ongoing",
      "event": "Heavies (Dy, Tb) never came off China's control list",
      "why": "Genuine scarcity is in heavies, where Western capacity is thinnest"
    }
  ],
  "listing_summary": {
    "total_market_cap_usd": 72741093467,
    "note": "Dual-listed companies are counted once, at the venue whose price this report quotes.",
    "by_region": {
      "China": {
        "listings": 3,
        "market_cap_usd": 30290210000,
        "companies": [
          "China Northern Rare Earth",
          "Shenghe Resources",
          "JL MAG Rare-Earth"
        ],
        "share_of_total_pct": 41.6
      },
      "United States": {
        "listings": 10,
        "market_cap_usd": 27831210000,
        "companies": [
          "MP Materials",
          "Energy Fuels",
          "USA Rare Earth",
          "REalloys",
          "NioCorp Developments",
          "Critical Metals Corp",
          "Ramaco Resources",
          "Idaho Strategic Resources",
          "Almonty Industries",
          "Perpetua Resources"
        ],
        "share_of_total_pct": 38.3
      },
      "Australia": {
        "listings": 3,
        "market_cap_usd": 12652367000,
        "companies": [
          "Lynas Rare Earths",
          "Iluka Resources",
          "Arafura Rare Earths"
        ],
        "share_of_total_pct": 17.4
      },
      "Canada": {
        "listings": 3,
        "market_cap_usd": 1967306467,
        "companies": [
          "Neo Performance Materials",
          "Ucore Rare Metals",
          "Aclara Resources"
        ],
        "share_of_total_pct": 2.7
      }
    }
  }
}